Where will Dembele go and for how much?

I am a new member to this supporters group, which I am hoping is legit because I followed the link through Fulham F.C.'s website to get here. As a long-time Cottager and lover of this club, I am saddened that we are right above the drop for relegation from the Championship.

Since we now couldn't hope to keep Dembele long term, I am wondering where everybody on here thinks he will end up and for how much?



FulhamFighterHardcore

 

Welcome!
Manchester City, for as much as we can get out of them.

 

Welcome FFH, while Moose II will eventually be sold, I'm still hopeful that the club will find a way to keep him for the time being. Does he have people surrounding him (i.e his agent/inner circle) that actually has his best interests at heart? Signing a new contract doesn't mean he won't be moved, but it would give him some peace of mind so he can focus on his continuing development. Fulham should give the kid a big raise and negotiate a transfer fee (ala Moose I, Spurs came in with the offer that triggered the sale) clause that both sides would be happy with. Of course this would require common sense and that seems in short supply from all parties.

If Moose II were English he'd probably have been sold already because of the new rule where there is a quota on British players (the only reason Citeh overpaid for Roberts) but he's not and it's fairly obvious he needs a year or two more seasoning. That said, if it gets to the point where (and we are moving towards it) we have to sell or get nothing, my guess is a Bundesliga side will swoop in and get him for a bargain ($2-4 million).

 

I think Fulham will try and sell him to a club that will loan him back to us for the remainder of the season. Probably United or Spurs, but I'd think United would be more likely to loan him back to us. And maybe not just this year, but next year as well.

How much? I'm guessing around £5M. If he leaves at year end to a Premier League club, that's what we anticipate getting (according to Vescey's interview w Cottage Talk). So I'd imagine we'll get a little more than that for him by selling him in January...as long as there's competition for his signature. If Dembele goes overseas, cut that figure in half.

Joe, you don't have to be British to count as homegrown. You just have to have come through a British academy. Cesc Fabregas counts as a homegrown player b/c he came through Arsenal's academy. Moose II will count as one as well. But not yet. You don't officially count until you turn 21.

 

First, welcome to the site. Second, I hope he's not sold, especially in January, but resigned instead. If moved on in the summer, all parties may profit from that transaction. That said, it hasn't been the M.O. of the club for the past few years to hold on to talented players (insert myriad names here).

COYW

 

Thanks for the clarification Matt on the products of Academies counting as 'english' players (sounds like another rule to help the Big Boys). So if that's the case it makes keeping Dembele is even more imparative from an economic standpoint. Selling him at age 20 vs 21 might be worth an extra $5-10 million if he plays closer to Saha as opposed to John (I'll guess he finishes between the two HD).

 

Joe, I think clubs take a longer term view of it, tbh. I doubt there's more money in it at 20 than 19 unless the player's performance changes. Look at the Roberts deal...and he's a long way from 21.

 

Matt, I was thinking the difference between 20 to 21, but let me get this straight, is it 21 for all players? or you count as 'homegrown' before 21 if you were an English born player? I thought the high dollar amount for Roberts was more because of his lineage than anything else. If Moose II continues to grow by the time he's 21 (and there is interest from the Big 4/5) that transfer fee could be 10+ millions

 

It's 21 for all players, regardless of nationality. To count as over-21, you have to be 21 on January 1st of the year in which the current season begins. So let's say you were born on Jan 2, 1994. You would have been 20 on 1/1/15, so for the 15/16 season, you'd count as an under-21, even though you'd turn 22 before that season ended. It's a really odd place to put the cutoff, but that's what they did.

Now the rule is that for a 25 man roster (of over-21's) you must have 8 who are homegrown. You don't have to have 8 though. If you have 6, then you can only carry a roster of 23 over-21's. Basically, you're limited to 17 over-21's who aren't homegrown. You can carry as many under-21's as you want. They don't count against your roster cap but they don't count as part of your homegrown quota either. This only applies to Premier League matches, not Cups.

One last thing of note. For a foreign born player to count as homegrown, he has to have spent 3 years with a club in the English Football League system between the ages of 16-21.

 

City paid around £45M for Sterling before he turned 21. They paid that premium because he'll eventually count as homegrown. But he's an under-21 until next season (Sterling just turned 21 on Dec 8).

Dembele's birthday is July 12, 1996. He won't count as homegrown until the 18/19 season.

 

Heather, we get more in compensation if he goes to an English club (as opposed to abroad) at the end of his contract. If we move him in January, we'll get whatever we can negotiate, regardless of destination.

I'd think that would be more from an English club as well because they'd be comparing a price now to the compensation they'll have to pay if they wait to sign him in the summer. Obviously competition for his signature will also affect the market for him. The only way that changes is if he were to put it out there that he was set on a return to France, for example. That would probably hurt our position.

As for selling, the pending FFP embargo sounds legit, so I'm expecting we will.

 

I say let Utd, City, Spurs all come calling. The more clubs looking to buy the better the end result. But I hope either
A) he gets loaned back for at least this season
B) he stays until next Jan at least and the club can get even more cash for him.

On the flip side what would you guys think if Fulham moved for Agudelo of NE Revolution? I know he couldn't get the work permit with Stoke, but he may qualify now.

 

Likely not. He has only played in three of the USMNT's 35 games over the last two years. To qualify for a UK work permit, you have to have played in like 75% of the games over the previous two seasons. Some guys get in below that via appeal if they are slightly below it but he is no where near that.