145th Kentucky Derby

Fox Hill Farm's Omaha Beach, owned by Rick Porter, trained by HOF'er Richard Mandella and ridden by Mike Smith, will be a prohibitive favorite when the post position draw occurs later this morning at Churchill Downs.
Smith won the Triple Crown last year aboard Justify, but Porter and Mandella, longtime horse racing giants, have yet to win a Derby. Porter's come close over the years, having two seconds in Hard Spun in '07 and Eight Belles in '08. Mandella has had a tougher time figuring out the Derby. In six starters, his best finish is a 5th with Soul Of The Matter in '94. He's saddled 9 Breeders' Cup champions, including four in 2003. He's 68 and is overdue to win this race. It's supposed to rain Saturday, and Omaha Beach won his last Derby prep in Arkansas in the slop. The only variable now is the 20 horse stampede that is the Derby for the first 1/4 mile or so. If he makes it through that, he should win.
Bob Baffert's got three horses in the field, Roadster, Game Winner and Improbable. One of those might give you some value for your betting dollar, but best I can tell, this is Omaha Beach's race to lose.
The draw for post positions is at 11 a.m., Eastern, today.
Post time Saturday is 6:50 p.m. Saturday. It's supposed to rain.

 

Thanks for the analysis Jump. I always try to lose some money with the Derby.

 

I prefer to call it a donation.

 

Well, I was wrong again. Omaha Beach is breaking from the 12 hole, which isn't a bad spot (the 1 is considered the worst), but, at 4-1 morning line odds, is definitely not a prohibitive favorite. Bob Baffert's Game Winner is second choice at 5-1, while his other two entrants, Roadster and Improbable, are 6-1. Then you go to undefeated Tacitus at 10-1, then Code Of Honor and Win Win Win at 15-1. Everybody else is at least 20-1 or higher. In short, there's some betting value there. The morning line odds tend to change a lot on the Derby before post time, so it'll be interesting to see of Omaha Beach gets bet up or down. If you like long shots, both of Todd Pletcher's horses are currently at 30-1. Wouldn't surprise me to see one of them sneak through to steal the roses.

 

Omaha Beach was scratched early this evening due to a trapped epiglottis. He's off the Triple Crown trail pending surgery to correct it sometime this week. He'll be out of training for two to three weeks. He COULD be back in time for the Belmont, but it's unlikely. Game Winner is now the 9-2 favorite, undefeated as a 2 year old, his only loss was a second in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 16th by a a nose to...Omaha Beach.

 

30-1 longshot Haikal did not train this morning due to an abscess in a hoof. If it doesn’t respond to a 24 hour soaking, he’ll be scratched in the morning (Friday).

 

11th hour pick, supposedly from the spouse of a certain well known trainer with platinum hair and a house full of trophies: Improbable.

 

I don't follow horse racing, but that seemed like a ridiculous way to win a race. As they came around the final turn I remarked about how wide Maximum Security had gone, but I thought it was going to allow a horse to pass on the inside as opposed to blocking off horses from the outside. It seemed that the #1 horse was the one that got pinched out and that Country House went through unimpeded, but it was Country House that got the win from the offense. Until this race I didn't even know that move was something that could be punished (again, I don't follow horse racing) and I guess they made the right call based on the rules, but I think Country House is now the least popular Derby winner ever. The boos were overwhelming as the trophy was presented. Kudos to Rebecca Lowe (she does something other than soccer?!) for bringing up a deceased family member during the trophy ceremony - that at least quieted some of the booing out of respect for the dead.

 

I don't follow it nearly as closely as many around here do (it's a cottage industry, like UK and UofL basketball), but I know enough to know that what happened is commonplace during every racing meet. It's just that it's magnified a hundred fold in the Kentucky Derby. I don't understand why War Of Will's connections didn't lodge an objection with the stewards. I almost gasped during the actual race when I saw that horse stumble and almost go down with his rider, Tyler Gaffalione. If ANYBODY had a right to cry foul, they did. But I'm willing to wager that most people who only watch the Derby and maybe the Preakness and Belmont, if there's a Triple Crown at stake, don't know there are three people watching the race with the authority to rule on such things.
Speaking of the rules...one of the major knocks against horse racing is the lack of a central governing body (although the way FIFA and the USSSF are run, that may be a good thing). The rules vary from state to state, but I suspect they're pretty consistent with regard to the running of the race. Here are Kentucky's:

Section 12. Fouls. A leading horse if clear is entitled to any part of the track. If a leading
horse or any other horse in a race swerves or is ridden to either side so as to interfere with,
intimidate, or impede any other horse or jockey, or to cause the same result, this action shall
be deemed a foul. If a jockey strikes another horse or jockey, it is a foul. If in the opinion of the
stewards a foul alters the finish of a race, an offending horse may be disqualified by the stewards.

Section 13. Stewards to Determine Foul Riding.
A jockey shall make his best effort to control and guide his mount in such a way as not to cause a foul. The stewards shall take cognizance of riding which results in a foul, irrespective of whether an objection is lodged. If in theopinion of the stewards a foul is committed as a result of a jockey not making his best effort to control and guide his mount to avoid a foul, whether intentionally or through carelessness or
incompetence, the jockey may be penalized at the discretion of the stewards.


Section 1. Persons Eligible to Lodge Objections or Complaints.
(1) Except as provided by subsection (2) of this section, an objection or complaint
against a horse or jockey entered in a race shall be received only if lodged:
(a) In accordance with Sections 2 and 3 of this administrativeregulation; and
(b) By the owner or authorized agent of the owner, the trainer, or the jockey, of another
horse engaged in the same race and whose horse suffered or may suffer by the alleged
violation of an administrative regulation.
(2) An inquiry may also be made by a racing official

Section 2. Form for Objections and Complaints.
(1) An objection as to interference or a foul occurring during the running of the race shall be lodged with the stewards orally or by telephone. All other objections or complaints shall be made in writing and be signed by the complainant.
(2) An objection or complaint lodged during a race meeting shall be addressed to the stewards.
An objection or complaint lodged after the termination of a race meeting shall be addressed to
the commission at the commission’s general office.
(3) An objection or complaint once lodged shall not be withdrawn without permission of the
stewards.

Section 3. Time for Lodging Objections or Complaints.
(1) Except as provided by subsection (2) of this section, an objection or complaint based on one (1)
of the following violations of 810 KAR Chapter 1 shall be lodged by an aggrieved person within the time prescribed:
...(b)Before the race has been posted as official on the infield results board, if the objection or complaint is based on interference by a horse, improper course run by a horse, foul riding by a jockey,
or any other matter occurring during and incident to the running of the race. ...
(2) A steward may declare a horse ineligible or disqualified at any time.

Section 4. Final Determination of Objections to Acts in Race.
(1) The stewards shall:
(a) Make all findings of fact as to all matters occurring during and incident to the running of a
race;
(b) Determine all objections and inquiries based on interference by a horse, improper course
run by a horse, foul riding by a jockey, and all other matters occurring during and incident to
the running of a race; and
(c) Determine the extent of disqualification, if any, of horses in a race for a foul committed
during the race.
(2) Findings of fact and determination shall be final and shall not be subject to appeal.
(3) In determining the extent of disqualification, the stewards shall consider the seriousness
and circumstances of the incident and may:
(a) Disqualify and place the offending horse, and any horses coupled with it as an entry, behind any horse that may have suffered by reason of the foul;
(b) Disqualify and declare the offending horse, and any horses coupled with it as an entry, unplaced;
(c) Disqualify the offending horse, and any horses coupled with it as an entry, from participation in
all or any part of the purse;
(d) Declare void a track record set or equaled by a disqualified horse, or any horses coupled
with it as an entry;
(e) Affirm the placing judges' order of finish and suspend the jockey, if in the stewards'
opinion the foul riding had no effect on the order of finish; or
(f) Disqualify the offending horse and not suspend the jockey, if in the stewards' opinion the
interference to another horse in a race was not the result of an intentional foul or careless
riding on the part of the jockey.

Basically, all of this says they can do what they did, and they were right in doing it.

The other big issue from all of this is a renewal of a subject I've pondered for a number of years now: the size of the field. The last Derby that didn't utilize the 6 stall auxiliary gate was 1997. There are few years now where there aren't 20 starters on post position draw day. This year, 19 started after Haikal was scratched after the Friday morning cutoff time for also eligible entries. Simply put, that's too many 3 year old thoroughbreds (19 in human years) going 45 mph for two minutes in very close quarters on sometimes challenging (i.e., mud, like yesterday) surfaces. The first 1/8th to 1/4 of a mile is more like a stampede than a race, and a lot more contact and interference occurs that doesn't get protested or inquired. The main gate holds 14. I'd really like to see them cap it at 16, but I don't think that will happen. Money doesn't talk, it screams.

One thing that this result does do. It sets up a very interesting showdown in Baltimore in a couple of weeks, if the connections decide to go for it. I think they will.

 

Set the dvr, forwarded it to the race, watched it, was waiting for the roses being draped and the trophy, then all Hell broke loose. My time ran out on the recording before any official announcement .

 

"There's no overtime!"
"There's no overtime in horse racing!'